可以写进 IB、A-Level、AP、IGCSE 经济学论文的真实新闻案例：供给冲击、供求与价格、成本推动型通胀
美国对伊朗格什姆岛采取军事行动后，全球油价再度小幅上涨，市场对美伊敌对行动升级和能源供应风险的担忧升温。
军事冲突威胁能源供应，属于典型的供给冲击：原油供给预期减少使供给曲线左移，在需求不变时推高油价。油价上涨又会抬高企业的能源成本，可能沿产业链传导为成本推动型通胀。
油价上涨能否持续取决于冲突是否真正中断供应，若供应未受影响，风险溢价可能很快消退；此外油价上涨对石油进口国不利，对出口国则可能有利。
结合该事件，说明供给冲击如何影响原油市场的均衡价格，并分析其可能引发的成本推动型通胀。
After the US took military action against Iran's Qeshm Island, global oil prices rose slightly again, raising concerns about escalation of US-Iran hostilities and risks to energy supply.
Military conflict threatening energy supply is a classic supply shock: expected crude supply falls, shifting the supply curve left and pushing up the oil price when demand is unchanged. Higher oil prices then raise firms' energy costs and can pass through the supply chain as cost-push inflation.
Whether the price rise lasts depends on whether the conflict actually disrupts supply; if it does not, the risk premium may fade quickly. Higher oil prices also hurt oil-importing countries while potentially benefiting exporters.
Using this event, explain how a supply shock affects the equilibrium price in the crude oil market and analyse the cost-push inflation it may cause.
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