可以写进 IB、A-Level、AP、IGCSE 经济学论文的真实新闻案例：供给冲击、供求与价格、成本推动型通胀
布伦特原油结算价升破每桶115美元，交易员在美以可能再次打击伊朗的风险与外交斡旋之间权衡。
地缘政治冲突风险威胁原油供应，供给预期收紧使供给曲线左移，在需求不变时推高油价。油价上涨又会抬高运输和生产的能源成本，沿成本链条传导，形成成本推动型通胀压力。
但油价能否持续走高取决于外交努力是否化解冲突风险，若局势缓和，风险溢价会迅速回落；此外油价上涨对石油进口国不利，对出口国有利，短期与长期影响也不同。
结合材料，运用供给与需求及成本推动型通胀的原理，分析地缘政治风险上升对原油价格及一般物价水平的影响。
Brent crude settled above $115 a barrel as traders weighed the risk of renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran against diplomatic efforts.
The risk of conflict threatens oil supply, so expected supply tightens and the supply curve shifts left, raising the price when demand is unchanged. Higher oil prices then raise energy costs for transport and production, feeding through the cost chain as cost-push inflationary pressure.
However, whether prices stay high depends on whether diplomacy defuses the conflict risk; if tensions ease, the risk premium can fall quickly. Higher oil prices also hurt oil importers while helping exporters, and short-run and long-run effects differ.
Using supply and demand and the concept of cost-push inflation, analyse how rising geopolitical risk affects crude oil prices and the general price level.
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